[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Supply-Demand Balance Adjusted, Market Mainly Operates in the Doldrums

On October 28, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,250-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,300-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price was 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 50-100 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

The ferrochrome market was in the doldrums during the day. Although the flat steel mill tender price from mainstream steel mills stabilized the market's decline, its boosting effect was limited. Demand side, recent production cut plans announced by multiple steel mills suggest a potential significant decrease in subsequent stainless steel production schedules, weakening the demand for ferrochrome purchases. Downstream buyers maintained a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Supply side, a high-carbon ferrochrome plant in Inner Mongolia started production on two 48,000 kva submerged arc furnaces during the day, which is expected to increase monthly ferrochrome production by approximately 18,000 mt under normal operating conditions. With ferrochrome production remaining high and additional capacity still to be released, the supply shortage caused by reduced imports of ferrochrome has been significantly alleviated, capping the upside room for ferrochrome prices. Furthermore, cost side, support from ore prices weakened as chrome ore prices declined. Overall, the ferrochrome market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Raw material side, on October 28, 2025, the spot offer price for 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin port was 55-55.5 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% South African raw ore, it was 50-51 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 57-58 yuan/mtu; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore, it was 58-59 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore, it was 59.5-60.5 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate, it was 65-66 yuan/mtu, down 0.25 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. Futures side, the offer price for 40-42% South African concentrate was $280-284/mt; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was $340-350/mt, flat MoM from the previous trading day.

The chrome ore market saw limited fluctuations during the day, with inquiries and purchases remaining mediocre, resulting in limited actual transactions. Spot side, although some ferrochrome producers entered the market for procurement, combined with the supplement of futures arrivals, purchase demand was not strong, remaining primarily for rigid needs, and the pressure to drive down prices through counteroffers persisted. Seller side, considering that recently arrived chrome ore was mostly priced at $270-275/mt, equivalent to approximately 54 yuan/mtu for spot, gradually approaching the cost line, the downside room for chrome ore prices is limited. Futures side, overseas chrome ore offers remained stable. High ferrochrome production schedules support short-term demand for ore, but news of steel mill production cuts affected market expectations, resulting in generally mediocre purchase willingness domestically. The export permits and taxation related to South African chrome ore remain the focus of recent market attention, with follow-up developments pending. The chrome ore market is expected to operate in the doldrums in the short term.